Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 3.883599 4.226138 4.604276 5.056501 5.587833 6.199058 6.965572
2025-01-26 3.463722 3.920622 4.461018 5.160796 6.064519 7.225808 8.893436
2025-02-02 3.259468 3.794793 4.460810 5.378041 6.658667 8.474783 11.454829
2025-02-09 3.081455 3.663711 4.416548 5.505239 7.127544 9.640013 14.340631
2025-02-16 2.876282 3.469319 4.256882 5.436368 7.281542 10.344996 16.763000
2025-02-23 2.715123 3.315064 4.130258 5.389203 7.447452 11.098403 19.695140
2025-03-02 2.575606 3.176845 4.009724 5.330428 7.575673 11.810184 23.026362
2025-03-09 2.455640 3.055692 3.901073 5.273528 7.691614 12.526730 26.998496
2025-03-16 2.362668 2.965352 3.828624 5.263457 7.885665 13.466999 32.749385
2025-03-23 2.305369 2.921405 3.820477 5.355781 8.285783 15.025789 43.507955
2025-03-30 2.206648 2.810989 3.702088 5.246861 8.268616 15.548482 50.767510
2025-04-06 2.115037 2.706220 3.585531 5.129643 8.215677 15.965108 58.812783
2025-04-13 2.012144 2.581640 3.433293 4.940982 7.995624 15.875961 63.756575
2025-04-20 1.978593 2.559046 3.441019 5.040408 8.417727 17.903872 99.495697
2025-04-27 1.968921 2.571414 3.504861 5.249099 9.133827 21.405547 232.389023
2025-05-04 1.942640 2.556509 3.522329 5.371216 9.676198 24.796343 894.267463
2025-05-11 1.884571 2.489296 3.447913 5.305103 9.727943 26.171352 5662.552686
2025-05-18 1.834033 2.431769 3.386673 5.259813 9.828006 27.909562 NaN
2025-05-25 1.784887 2.374461 3.322727 5.203361 9.888628 29.552150 NaN
2025-06-01 1.739040 2.320660 3.262105 5.148694 9.946004 31.295329 NaN
2025-06-08 1.703047 2.281248 3.224477 5.139016 10.134016 34.145493 NaN
2025-06-15 1.684130 2.268473 3.232732 5.227714 10.640475 40.165907 NaN
2025-06-22 1.637468 2.209002 3.155129 5.123068 10.522218 41.116849 NaN